Strategic Scenarios: Stress-Testing Utility Strategy for the Long Term

Financial planning often leans on forecasts built from past data, current trends, and assumptions. But in energy, the future rarely plays out as expected.

At Crux Energy, we push beyond traditional forecasts with high and low bookend scenarios in utility strategy. These are not minor tweaks - they are strategic stress tests that prepare businesses for challenges and opportunities that can emerge through the next ten years.

Bookend scenarios are deliberately divergent. Some may seem unlikely to be true, but that’s their power: they expose weaknesses, challenge assumptions, and reveal hidden opportunities.

We use bookend scenarios to explore the edges of forecasts: the “art of the possible” in a high case, and the “perfect storm” in a low case. They combine data with judgment, balancing controllable levers like capital and programs with forces beyond our control, from policy changes to economic shocks.

This approach helps move from reactive planning to proactive resilience.

Why Bookend Scenarios Matter in Utility Strategy

Bookend scenarios are more than planning tools, they’re strategic frameworks. They help utilities:

• Identify blind spots in traditional forecasting.

• Stress-test strategies against extreme but plausible futures.

• Align capital and policy with long-term resilience.

• Design flexible programs that adapt to uncertainty.

• Support affordability and equity by anticipating risk and opportunity.

In my work at Crux Energy, I’ve seen how bookend scenarios can shift conversations: from “what’s likely” to “what’s possible.” They encourage teams to think beyond operations and toward transformation.

And in a sector where affordability, reliability, and equity are all on the line, that kind of strategic foresight isn’t just useful, it’s essential.