Strategy vs. Reality: Why the Customer's Energy Affordability Must Be at the Heart of Utility Planning

In the energy and utility world, long term strategy planning encompasses many aspects. From changing markets and technologies, to evolving talent requirements and investor sentiments, strategies must be both broad and dynamic.

But utilities face an additional lens while strategy planning, one that should always be at the core.

That view is customer affordability. The heart of utility planning.

I’ve written about energy affordability at length before. Check out our province-by-province analysis in earlier blog posts here. But affordability isn’t just a customer issue—it’s a strategic one.

If a utility’s strategy doesn’t account for how changes will impact customer bills, both at the macro and localized level, it risks undermining its own success.

Regional Analysis: Localizing the Energy Affordability Issue

Rate impacts aren’t just numbers, they are the reality of homes and businesses that need to keep the lights on. And they can make or break public trust, regulatory support, and program uptake.

We can start with a regional view. The chart below shows average residential customer bills across a province, compared to the industry-accepted energy poverty rate of 6% of income, along with a mockup of an average customer bill.

This kind of analysis is essential for strategy and customer teams. It helps identify where affordability pressures are most acute and where targeted interventions may be needed. And this is especially true when customers are paying for more than one commodity, because understanding the total wallet impact of energy is crucial. It is how the customer sees it, and utilities should see it in the same way.

Forecasting Where Energy Affordability May Become a Strategic Issue

At Crux Energy, we also compare average monthly residential bills to an energy poverty threshold, commonly cited as 6% of after tax household income. This threshold represents the point at which energy costs begin to compromise a household’s ability to afford other essentials like food and medication.

This level of analysis can take many perspectives, from variable and non variable charges, as a customer would see on a bill. Or, as shown below, broken out between fuel and non-fuel related charges, separating out headwinds that utilities might not be in control of, like carbon and sales taxes.

This isn’t just a policy concern, it’s a strategic red flag. If a utility’s roadmap includes significant capital investments, electrification mandates, or rate restructuring, it must also include affordability mitigation strategies. Otherwise, the long-term viability of those plans is at risk.

Evaluating What is Working

So what’s working? The chart below is an output of a customer program analysis. Where we at Crux Energy weigh the cost / benefits of the programs offered to customers. It’s a report card of sorts, showing where programs are gaining traction and where they’re falling short.

High uptake in affordability-focused programs may offset rate impacts and build customer goodwill. But low uptake may signal design flaws, communication gaps, or eligibility barriers. And not all of these cases are clear cut. Some customer affordability programs are so difficult to manage, that even with high uptake, they create cost pressures from the sheer administration of the program. All of this need to be addressed in strategic planning.

Where to From Here

At Crux Energy, we believe utility strategy and customer affordability must be co-designed, not bolted on after the fact. Our services blend deep technical expertise with customer-centric modelling, helping utilities build strategies that are resilient, equitable, and executable.

Authors Note: All charts are illustrative in nature and not representative of any one utility.