The cold embrace of a Canadian winter has brought more than just frosty temperatures: it has added fire to a conversation around our nation's electrical resilience. Alberta recently sounded the alarm, issuing an emergency alert urging consumers to immediately conserve electricity or otherwise potentially face outages when the temperatures plunged below -30C. Even Quebec, the “battery” of Canada, finds itself in an unexpected energy pinch, leading to a (perhaps alarmist) headline in the Globe & Mail today: "Firms turn to private power producers as Hydro-Québec runs short of electricity."
Saint John Energy in New Brunswick also chimed in, warning customers about an impending cold snap and the strain it would place on the grid, emphasizing the peak in energy consumption during daily routines and noting that when it is really cold, the utility relies more on carbon-intensive power generation. (As an aside, we are fans of Saint John Energy’s message and we are curious if their customers responded by reducing their electricity usage.)
The underlying issue is far from unforeseen. A lack of substantial growth in electricity demand over the past two decades, coupled with the retirement of aging infrastructure in the pursuit of decarbonization and renewable resources, set the stage for our current predicament. Now, an upswing in demand from electric vehicles, heat pumps, data centers supporting AI, plus a surge in manufacturing has caught us off guard.
The parallels between the electricity conundrum and Canada's immigration concerns are striking. We applaud electrification and decarbonization just as we embrace population growth, yet find ourselves inadequately equipped to handle the challenges both bring.
Amidst the fretting over electricity, one thing is clear: constraints on the grid should not be a deterrent to electrification or decarbonization. Rather, they serve as a stark reminder that our system is finite, and urgent action is required to bolster its capacity. Electrifying the economy is not an overnight feat; it requires meticulous planning, seamless coordination, and a substantial infusion of capital. And let's not be too hasty in retiring our natural gas generation and furnaces – given Canada's frigid winters, every ounce of capacity will be needed for a long time to come.